О готовности США к ядерному сдерживанию
Feb. 22nd, 2022 01:15 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
thagastan...нам напоминает отчёт RAND Corp.
То есть - ядерное сдерживание является стержнем политики безопасности США в отношении России. И - для поддержания роли США в системе безопасности необходим некоторый риск ядерной войны...
Strengthening Strategic Stability with Russia
by Christopher S. Chivvis, Andrew Radin, Dara Massicot, Clint Reach
by Christopher S. Chivvis, Andrew Radin, Dara Massicot, Clint Reach
There are serious challenges ahead for the United States and Russia when it comes to strengthening strategic stability. The overall negative tenor of U.S.-Russia relations—including the challenge of an agreement on Syria, the INF treaty, and disagreement about Ukraine—will make it difcult to fnd a way forward. Nuclear deterrence will thus continue to be a core part of the U.S. security policy when it comes to Russia. Tis requires continued investment in nuclear modernization and effective messaging both in the United States and around the world that nuclear weapons remain a vital part of the U.S. military arsenal;
and that the United States remains militarily, politically, and psychologically prepared to employ nuclear weapons in the defense of vital U.S. interests.
Especially given indications that Russia may have a lower threshold for nuclear use, particularly of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, Washington should make clear to Moscow in diplomatic channels and publicly that it would consider any use of a nuclear weapon—no matter how small or discriminate—as crossing a
threshold that has not been breached for more than 70 years, and that nuclear use would dramatically change the situation, opening a Pandora’s box of unpredictable and potentially catastrophic consequences. Te goal would be to raise the prospect in the minds of the Russian leadership that Russian frst use would almost certainly trigger an American nuclear response and thereby help deter the Kremlin from frst use.
...
It is a paradox that some risk of nuclear war may be necessary to sustain U.S. power and the role of the United States in ensuring predictability in today’s international security environment. Nevertheless, persistent vigilance about trends in strategic stability is crucial. Te United States and Russia both share an interest in strengthening strategic stability and should continue to seek ways to engage constructively on the issue.
and that the United States remains militarily, politically, and psychologically prepared to employ nuclear weapons in the defense of vital U.S. interests.
Especially given indications that Russia may have a lower threshold for nuclear use, particularly of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, Washington should make clear to Moscow in diplomatic channels and publicly that it would consider any use of a nuclear weapon—no matter how small or discriminate—as crossing a
threshold that has not been breached for more than 70 years, and that nuclear use would dramatically change the situation, opening a Pandora’s box of unpredictable and potentially catastrophic consequences. Te goal would be to raise the prospect in the minds of the Russian leadership that Russian frst use would almost certainly trigger an American nuclear response and thereby help deter the Kremlin from frst use.
...
It is a paradox that some risk of nuclear war may be necessary to sustain U.S. power and the role of the United States in ensuring predictability in today’s international security environment. Nevertheless, persistent vigilance about trends in strategic stability is crucial. Te United States and Russia both share an interest in strengthening strategic stability and should continue to seek ways to engage constructively on the issue.
